The exhibitions industry is booming. Never before have they been perceived as so crucial from the beneficiaries’ (visitors and exhibitors) point of view.
But why is this happening? Is there any “theory” that explains the success of this “old” instrument that we call “exhibitions”?
The answer is yes, and I want to share an interesting theory that I feel can be applied to our industry:
The Lindy Effect
The Lindy effect is a concept that describes the relationship between the age of a thing (or an idea) and its expected lifespan.
According to the Lindy effect, the longer something has been around, the longer it will likely remain relevant and useful.
Longevity implies resistance to change, obsolescence or competition and greater odds of continued existence into the future.
The Lindy effect can also be used to evaluate the potential success of new exhibitions and new trends in the industry. If a new exhibition has been around for a short time, it is less likely to have proven its staying power and is, therefore, less likely to be successful in the long term.
The mathematical foundation for the Lindy effect is based on the concept of power laws. Power laws are a mathematical function that describes a relationship between two quantities, where one quantity varies as a power of the other.
The Lindy effect is closely related to the power-law distribution, which describes the frequency of events that follow a power-law relationship.
In the case of the Lindy effect, we can use a power-law distribution to model the probability distribution of the remaining lifespan of an item.
Suppose that the lifespan of an item follows a power-law distribution with a shape parameter of α. Then the probability density function of the remaining lifespan of the item after it has already survived for t units of time can be written as:
f(x | t) = αt^(α) / x^(α+1)
Where x is the remaining lifespan of the item, and t is the time that the item has already survived.
The Lindy effect suggests that α is greater than 1, which means that the distribution has a long tail, indicating that the probability of the item surviving for a long time is higher than for a short time. These mathematical elements are because as an item ages, it becomes more embedded in the culture or society, and its influence grows, making it more likely to persist.
Additional Sources of Reading:
https://www.wealest.com/articles/lindy-effect
